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Buffalo Bills are the favorite team here! Weekly posts about the goings on at One Bills Drive in Orchard Park. Generally, a recap, and a prediction of each game.

by Greg

[Football Friday] On The Road

alex-at-a-football-game

It’s Friday, and that means another weekend of football is here! A week ago, Alex and I attended a high school football game here in our town. First time ever, actually! It was fun… except for the constant rain, on a cold night, and the college-ready, MJD-bodied running back on the other team… Still, it really was quite fun! We look forward to doing it again soon.

But, as you are likely well aware, this is a Buffalo Bills household. High school football is fun—I enjoyed playing for my high school several decades ago—and every once in a while we’ll tune in a Michigan State football game (and on rare occasions, a different college game) … BUT…

It’s pretty much Buffalo Bills, and NFL football around here.

(Oh, and for the next couple weeks, our football weekends culminate with our own Monday Night (flag) Football games! Those are great fun, too!)

On The Road

So this week, the very promising, young Bills get to play their first game away from The Ralph.

In two games at home, they have performed admirable, and at times, messily. Penalties, turnovers, dropped passes, missed passes, and in Week One, a CJ Spiller who forgot he was good. That has led to a 1-1 record, thanks to EJ Manuel and company pulling it together on the final drive. And also, thanks to a defense that looks… impressive. Even missing two of its best players: CB Stephon Gilmore and FS Jairus Byrd.

Will that continue on the road? How much does the raucous crowd in Orchard Park aid this team? Can this young team with a rookie QB, and a rookie Head Coach, have the same—or better—success on the road???

We’re about to find out!

The Opponent: New York Jets

The Jets are favored by 2.5 points. That actually means that Vegas thinks the Bills will win the game. (Home teams are given at least three points, just for hosting the game.) The line makes sense, based on their records through the first two weeks: both teams at 1-1, both wins being last minute, come from behind wins. (The Bills loss to the Patriots was much closer than the Jets loss to the same team, though, as the Jets were never really in that game, despite the appearance on the score board.)

Such a tough game to figure out. It would seem that the Bills have the edge in talent, and they have performed overall much better than their division counterparts. But both teams are young. The Jets have an established, veteran (mostly respected) head coach… but the Bills have the Jets’ former Defensive Coordinator! Ha!

Really, should be an interesting matchup. Can’t wait to see it!

Prediction…

Buffalo Bills QB, E.J. ManuelI really think the Bills defense is improved. Six sacks last week. The backup corner backs are playing MUCH better than anticipated. Rookie LB Kiko Alonso was overshadowed last week by fellow rookie, EJ Manuel’s last minute drive to win the game. (And Stevie Johnson FINALLY catching the big pass!) Alonso is pretty great so far, actually. He ended the game by sacking Cam Newton, when they still had a (very small) chance to win that game. He also had an interception early in the game.

Look for Mike Pettine’s defense to continue improving, and confuse Jets QB Geno Smith, and shut down whomever else they have on their offense. (Who do they have?)

And on offense … with a steady young, unflappable QB, a really talented group of wide receivers, and um… CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson? If they don’t hurt themselves with penalties and turnovers, this should be a comfortable win for the Buffalo Bills.

Final score: 27-13 Buffalo.

Hooray! 🙂

The Bills, if they really are improved, and “heading the the right direction”—as most Bills fans think they are—really need to win this game. It’s against a division opponent, that has befuddled and annoyed them for years.

This Sunday we could start to see that turning around.

Go Bills!

Enjoy your football weekend!

by Greg

[Football Friday] Mounting Injuries, Mounting Losses?

Bills DE Alex Carrington injured against the NY Jets

NFL football is rough. (That’s probably obvious.)

And somehow, it’s always rougher to the Buffalo Bills!

I remember just a few years ago when there were seventeen (or more?) players on the season-ending Injured Reserve (IR) list! That’s a third of an NFL roster! Yikes!

This year is starting off no better. Look at this injury report from Thursday afternoon:

OUT
CB Ron Brooks – foot
*CB Stephon Gilmore – wrist
*K Dustin Hopkins – groin
WR Marquise Goodwin – hand
(DE Alex Carrington – placed on IR this week)

QUESTIONABLE
*S Jairus Byrd – foot
*CB Leodis McKelvin – hamstring

PROBABLE
*DL Marcell Dareus – ankle
*DL Mario Williams – ankle
*DL Kyle Williams – Achilles
*WR Stevie Johnson – hamstring
G/C Doug Legursky – knee
*RB C.J. Spiller – thigh
*OL Kraig Urbik – knee

legursky-injury

I put an asterisk next to each of the guys who are starters. And the other guys are players who would be in there for many snaps.

Again… Yikes!!!

Clash WITH the Titans

Buffalo Bills Schedule - Weeks 4-9As if the injuries weren’t enough by themselves… have you seen the Bills’ schedule?

Currently they are at 1-2 (which could easily be 0-3!) and they are about to take on six teams in a row whose combined record is an astounding 15-3… and that’s because Cleveland is in there! (And they beat a reasonably-tough Minnesota Vikings team last weekend, after nearly defeating Baltimore the week prior!)

There are two 2-1 teams (Baltimore, Cincinnati), and THREE teams with perfect, 3-0 records! (Miami, New Orleans, and Kansas City—the first two are road games!) Holy. Moly.

The next two games after that are at Pittsburgh (no easy task, even if they do have a losing record this year) and home again to face the New York Jets. That did not go so well the first time …

Even with all of those players on the injury list above, those games would be tough. But without them?

Buckle up, Bills fans. This could get bumpy!

Oh No! Our QB is on FIRE!

ejOne week, you’re the savior of the world, next week… not so much.

EJ Manuel has fallen from grace with many Bills fans, rightly wearied by thirteen seasons of quarterbacking woes. (OK, not really. There was still a little Flutie in there (ha! “little”) and Bledsoe had that one good year…

Last week EJ was sacked EIGHT times, and for some strange reason he kept throwing balls 5 or 6 yards out of bounds? (EJ, that’s a good way to avoid INTs, but you also avoid the completions.) He looked skittish, scared, scurried, and all things of that sort. To be fair, the offensive line and the run game sort of set him up to feel (and act) that way. The blame can not all be placed on the quarterback.

That said, last Sunday, it was pretty obvious that he is a rookie.

He’s looked good at The Ralph. That’s where they play this Sunday. Against the Super Bowl Champion, Baltimore Ravens. Who still have a good defense. (Minus Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, and … somebody else.)

Will EJ Manuel still look like he’s on fire in week four? OR, will be be “on fire”, besting his yards, touchdowns, and any other marks he’s set so far in his fledgling career?

Prediction…

Well, I missed last week’s prediction. Pretty badly, actually. Greatly underestimating the somewhat no-name Jets’ defense, my 27-13 Buffalo win turned out to be a 27-20 LOSS. Stinky.

This week, I shall be more conservative. And honestly, I hope that I am wrong two weeks in a row.

But I won’t be.

The Ravens are also coming into Orchard Park injured, but they still have their highly-paid quarterback. I have a hard time believing that our fourth-string and on down the depth chart cornerbacks (and backup safety, I might add) will be able to stop Joe Flacco and whomever he chooses to throw to.

Toss in the (incredibly) porous Bills run defense facing the likely return of Ray Rice, and…

Baltimore should win this one somewhat easily.

Final score: 30-20, Baltimore.

I think one thing we will find out this week in Buffalo is the skill, talent, and ability of the rookie coaches (as well as the rookie quarterback). Doug Marrone and Nathaniel Hackett will need to free up CJ Spiller and EJ Manuel somehow, while Mike Pettine will have to figure out a way to run his crazy (and good) defensive scheme with fourth-stringers! I do hope they can get it done. We’re about to find out!

Go Bills!

Enjoy your football weekend!

by Greg

[Football Friday] Wait… What Day Is It?

Today is actually Thursday, but since the Buffalo Bills play their weekend game tonight, my Football Friday post—a preview of the next game—will publish on a Thursday!

It’s very confusing…

Hopefully the BILLS will not be as confused! Though, as I heard pointed out this week, the Thursday Night Games so far this season have been very sloppy, hard-to-watch football games. The short week of practice, and less time to recover from any injuries are probably two of the main factors contributing to a lesser version of NFL football.

Perhaps tonight the two young, up-and-coming franchises will break from that pattern?

And… perhaps not.

The Good Stuff

There is actually a bunch to like from both of these teams coming off their last games. (OK, not the Bills game in New Jersey against the Jets. There’s hardly anything to like about that one!) But other than that game, the Browns have won two in a row after their quarterback change. Brian Hoyer is 2-0 as the starter, and even though their season starter, Brandon Weeden is healthy again, Hoyer will play in this next game against the Bills, too.

fred-jackson-bills-ravens

The Bills are fresh off their win at home against last year’s Super Bowl Champions, the Baltimore Ravens. Impressive! And more than just because of their title. The Ravens were #4 in the league in run defense, and the Bills ran for over 200 yards against them! The Bills defense had four sacks and five INTs on Super Bowl MVP, Joe Flacco. Very impressive!

And don’t forget their two games prior to the NY Jets debacle were a comeback win against a pretty good Carolina Panthers team (they beat the Giants 38-0 the week after losing to Buffalo) and leading the New England Patriots until the very last minute, when they took the lead on a late field goal.

Other than the game against the Jets, EJ Manuel has looked at least reliable, and even exciting. I’d say especially the game against Carolina—the long, comeback, last-minute drive for the go-ahead touchdown—but he also hit some throws last week for scores, including one that didn’t count (but should have!) near the end of the game. Also, Manuel has greatly limited any mistakes, and the Bills’ future does look promising with him at the helm!

INJURY UPDATE!
Bills FS Jairus Byrd—dead to many Bills fans, thanks to his non-chalant, flippant attitude in most (all?) interviews since signing with the team in the pre-season—fully participated in practice earlier this week. That’s a really good sign that he might indeed return … even as early as this week! Other Bills are greatly on the mend as well, including super-speedy rookie WR Marquise Goodwin, who will probably be back for the Bills’ next game, Sunday Oct. 13th, at home against the Bengals.

The Scary Stuff

Let’s not forget what I highlighted last week: INJURIES ABOUND!

That hasn’t really changed, outside of the update directly above. But now, players like CJ Spiller can be added to the not-likely-to-be-seen-on-the-field-in-any-meaningful-way list. (If there isn’t such a list, there should be!) Fred Jackson is also hurt, but nearly guarantees he’ll be out there. Thirteen players are officially listed on the Week 5 injury report at BuffaloBills.com, and four of those are definitely out.

STATS DON’T LIE… USUALLY
Last week the Bills were able to overcome a top-notch run defense. Well, way more than “overcome”. They put up over 200 yards. So how about this week? Tonight, the Bills take on the #1 rush defense in the NFL, the Cleveland Browns. Can the Bills—perhaps minus their top two running backs, due to injuries—work similar magic this week? Not likely. The Browns defense is younger, faster, and crazier (in my opinion).

One strength the Browns possess that the Ravens do not necessarily is their “shut down” corner, Joe Hayden. He should effectively remove whichever receiver they put him on. (He shut down a pretty great receiver, AJ Green of the Bengals, last week.) The good news for the Bills is, they have many more than just one receiver!

Speaking of receivers, the Browns have a TE (Jordan Cameron) who has been somewhat dominant through the first quarter of the 2013 season. I believe he has five touchdown receptions now, including a game where he posted three? Those are Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, and Tony Gonzalez numbers. The Bills are faster this year, and prepared to cover guys (or attempt to) like Gronk … Cameron will be a good test of that.

Prediction

So far, in my illustrious, two-part, Football Friday predictions I am an astounding… 0 for 2. 🙂 The game I thought the Bills would win, they lost. When I thought they were just too injury-depleted to compete, they won, and it seemed rather “easily”.

So… I’m a little afraid to proceed here, as a Bills fan, but …

With a defense that leads the NFL in interceptions, going up against a relative no-name QB in Brian Hoyer, a “vintage” RB, former Bill, Willis McGahee, and… who? at receiver? (Other than their TE, Cameron) …

AND, with an offense that, even injured, has a multiplicity of potent targets …

BUT, it is a road game, on national television…

Still, I must stick with my gut and say that, in a defensive struggle, the Bills will pull out the (much-needed) road victory:

Final score: 19-12, Buffalo.

(Yes, lots of field goals. Excited now?) 🙂

The Bills will benefit greatly by beating a team that is similarly (but lesser) talented than they are, on the road, and picking up a conference win, against a team that their division rival, Miami, has already beaten. (Record against common opponents is a tie-breaker later on, should one be needed…)

We’ll see tonight if this team of youngsters is up to the task!

Go Bills!

by Greg

[Football Friday] Stranger Things Have Happened…

ralph-wilson-stadium

The big news this Football Friday is that the Buffalo Bills game in Orchard Park this Sunday versus the Cincinnati Bengals… will be on TV!

There were over 7,000 tickets left at the start of this week, and with the current state of panic and fear—and the ever-present dread, hopelessness, and dismay—amongst Bills fans, there was little chance of this game selling out. (And of course, a sell-out is required for local television stations to be allowed to broadcast the game. “Local” being defined by the NFL as every city within about 200 miles of Ralph Wilson Stadium!)

Thanks to a last minute gift from Ralph Wilson, Jr. the nonagenarian owner of the Bills, local fans will be able to watch the game from their homes.

But, after losing to THE BROWNS last week on national TV—by thirteen points!!!—and losing their starting QB, why on God’s green earth would anyone want to see this game, anyway?

Read on, faithful fan!

All Hope Is Lost

ej-manuelLast week, we Bills fans had to endure the sight of our first-round, wonder kid, phenom rookie QB writhing on the sideline, clutching his knee. (As well as a Browns defender standing over him, pumping his fist in victory… despite the fact that EJ Manuel had just converted a third down with his run, setting up the Bills’ go-ahead touchdown mid-to-late third quarter… hmm…) Hearts sank, stomach knots twisted, throats felt nervous lumps rise… and basically all hope was lost. Throw the season in the toilet, flush, and prep for next year’s draft, fellas!

After watching then-backup quarterback, Jeff Tuel (another rookie QB) look quite pedestrian (and that’s being kind) most Bills fans could agree that there wasn’t much to be cheery about as a Bills fan.

But a more objective, rational review of the game in Cleveland would show the following:

  • Even with lots of injuries still, including losing Stevie Johnson somewhere in the second quarter, the Bills had managed to endure crazy-huge punt returns—one for a long TD—by the Browns, which gave them a 17-10 half-time lead, and take a third-quarter lead of their own, 24-17.
  • The Bills defense (still depleted by injuries) held the Browns’ running game in check, and really their offense, despite bad field position thanks to those punt returns.
  • Even the NFL Network announcers were pretty much handing the game to the Bills by the third quarter, with Mike Mayock commenting repeatedly that the Bills were just, “tightening the noose” with each successive first down.

Credit the Browns with taking advantage of Aaron Williams at cornerback—and a great catch by Josh Gordon on the game-tying score, bobbling, and then pulling it in while managing to get both feet down in the end zone.

EJ going down (for two to eight weeks, say his doctors) the Bills had to find more QB help. There was talk of recently-released Josh Freeman, but he chose Minnesota. There was more talk of Pat White (really??) and a few other cast-offs. But the Bills chose to bring Thaddeus Lewis off the practice squad and place him at the front of the bus, starting the game this week against Cincinnati!

What is happening around here?!

With the large list of injured (important) players, now larger and bearing the name E. J. Manuel, on top of the more important 2-3 overall record that they now hold, and a practice squad QB as our starter (and Jeff Tuel as his backup!) … it sure did seem as though all hope was lost.

All Hope is NOT Lost!

BUT… (a very important but!)

The Bills are getting nearly EVERYONE back. Jairus Byrd will finally be on the field, practicing fully this week. Even Stephon Gilmore is likely to get some playing time this weekend. Ron Brooks, Marquise Goodwin, and Doug Legursky are all scheduled to return this week. Also, don’t forget that a Thursday game means ten days off. Ten days means healthier players, including CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson, and maybe even Stevie Johnson. (Johnson may miss this game due to a death in his family this week, as well as a back injury that has not fully healed.)

So really, other than players on injured reserve, the only player who is definitely out this weekend is EJ Manuel. The rest of that large list that the Bills have sported each week so far in 2013 … might be completely eliminated! Everyone playing!

This is really good news for us Bills fans. (And, um… the Bills!)

A Welcome Sight
moorman-qbMaybe the BEST news this week for the Bills was the release of 2nd year punter, Shawn Powell, and the re-signing of free agent punter, BRIAN MOORMAN!!! Many Bills fans are ecstatic to see the return of #8. (And yes, Jeff Tuel relinquished his number to the player most Bills fans know as #8, taking #7 for his own jersey number.)

With all the trouble at QB, maybe Brian Moorman will step in if there’s an injury. He’s always exciting, that’s for sure. And usually pretty fired up! Should get a big, friendly welcome from the crowd at The Ralph this Sunday when he comes out on the field. The Bills might do well to introduce the special teams starters before the game, just to pump up the crowd a bit more!

Welcome back, Mr. Moorman!

Prediction

I’m kinda worried about making this prediction. I’m 0-3 so far. I predicted a loss, and they won. I predicted two wins, and they lost. Yikes!

Well… as I see it… the Bengals offense is not very good. They only got SIX points against the Cleveland Browns! We posted 24, and likely would have scored more. They do have AJ Green (a GREAT wide receiver) but we are getting all of our corners back (hopefully) and we apparently have a pretty decent D-coordinator in Mike Pettine!

The Bengals defense is a different story. They are good. But the Bills will have home field advantage, which should actually help a bit, and so far this year, the Bills have done well, even against pretty decent defenses (maybe especially Baltimore, but really every team they have played has a better-than-average defense! The Jets, Panthers, and Browns are #2, #3, and #4 after five weeks! Oh my!) The Bengals currently rank eighth overall, and tenth overall against the run—probably the Bills offensive strength.

The thing is, Thad Lewis is not bad. He’s not great, and is appropriately a backup QB, but he most likely won’t lose the game for the Bills. So, with a nearly-100% healthy defense, a slightly-healthier offense, a home game against an opponent that doesn’t do that well offensively (usually) …

Final score: 21-16, Buffalo.

I know I’m probably guaranteeing a loss with that prediction, but… well, that’s what I think will happen! Plenty of takeaways (Kiko Alonso! Jairus Byrd?), good defense, and an offense that moves the ball well enough to win.

(Did you know that the Bills are averaging 22.4 points per game so far this year, with scores of 21, 24, 20, 23, 24 in their five games? Not bad.)

So … go Bills! Enjoy your football weekend!

UPDATE: Right after this published, the Bills announced that Ron Brooks will not play this weekend. (He is listed as “Out”, along with EJ Manuel.) Stevie Johnson and Stephon Gilmore are “Questionable” and being called “game-time decisions”.